Mapping of coronary stent demand of several hospitals in Indonesia and its forecasting

Indonesia with 240s million population is counted as a large population country. It is about 10% of that population is elderly with potential having cardiovascular problem. An alternative treatment to the people having that disease is by implanting a coronary stent either BMS (Bare Metal Stent) or DES (Drug Eluting Stent) types. Although, stent has been accepted as an alternative technique to treat cardiovascular patient, demand on stent seems to be high and growing fast. However, there was no official published document showing the demand on stent yet and so it was no available forecasting data. This paper presents the map of stent demand and its forecast in a period of time. Three hospitals in Java island have been observed to collect data and these data were used to forecast its future demand using double exponential smoothing with MAPE for measuring its error of forecasting.