A Scalable Stochastic Model for the Electricity Demand of Electric and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles

In this paper we propose a stochastic model, based on queueing theory, for electric vehicle (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) charging demand. Compared to previous studies, our model can provide 1) more accurate forecasts of the load using real-time sub-metering data, along with the level of uncertainty that accompanies these forecasts; 2) a mathematical description of load, along with the level of demand flexibility that accompanies this load, at the wholesale level. This can be useful when designing demand response and dynamic pricing schemes. Our numerical experiments tune the proposed statistics on real PHEV charging data and demonstrate that the forecasting method we propose is more accurate than standard load prediction techniques.