• DocumentCode
    673344
  • Title

    Can the future really be predicted?

  • Author

    Zaw Zaw Htike

  • Author_Institution
    Dept. of Electr. & Comput. Eng, IIUM, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
  • fYear
    2013
  • fDate
    26-28 Sept. 2013
  • Firstpage
    360
  • Lastpage
    365
  • Abstract
    For several decades, researchers have heatedly debated the statistical properties of real-world time series. On one end of the spectrum, researchers put forward that the majority of the real-world time series are nondeterministic and that some of them exhibit `random walk´; these researchers advocate that real-world time series are unpredictable. On the other end of the spectrum, researchers have devoted their entire careers trying to predict time series based on the past history of the time series. A variety of time series prediction techniques have been widely used in domains such as weather forecasting, electric power demand forecasting, earthquake forecasting, and financial market forecasting. As real-world time series are affected by a multitude of interrelating macroscopic and microscopic variables, the underlying models that generate these time series are nonlinear and extremely complex. Therefore, it is computationally infeasible to develop full-scale models with the present computing technology. As a result, researchers have resorted to smaller-scale models. Despite advances in forecasting technology over the past few decades, there have not been algorithms that can consistently produce accurate predictions with statistical significance. Therefore, this position paper investigates whether real-world time series are deterministic or nondeterministic. This paper argues that nondeterminism does exist and that real-world time series exhibit unpredictability. As a result, consistently accurate time series prediction can be considered to be impossible. However, short-term time series prediction may be possible temporarily if one could somehow discover a simple model that can momentarily represent an intricate system.
  • Keywords
    forecasting theory; statistical analysis; time series; computing technology; earthquake forecasting; electric power demand forecasting; financial market forecasting; full-scale models; macroscopic variables; microscopic variables; random walk; real-world time series; smaller-scale models; statistical properties; statistical significance; time series prediction techniques; weather forecasting; Brain modeling; Computational modeling; Heating; Meteorology; Determinism; nondeterminism; predictability; time series forecasting;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Signal Processing: Algorithms, Architectures, Arrangements, and Applications (SPA), 2013
  • Conference_Location
    Poznan
  • ISSN
    2326-0262
  • Electronic_ISBN
    2326-0262
  • Type

    conf

  • Filename
    6710649