Using fractional GM(1,1) model to predict maintenance cost of weapon system

Author

Fang Shili ; Wu Lifeng ; Yu Liang ; Fang Zhigeng

Author_Institution

Coll. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Aeronaut. & Astronaut., Nanjing, China

fYear

2013

fDate

15-17 Nov. 2013

Firstpage

177

Lastpage

181

Abstract

In order to improve the prediction performance for maintenance cost of weapon system, grey system model with the fractional order accumulation (FGM(1,1)) is used to predict the maintenance cost of weapon system with small sample. FGM(1,1) yielded the lower MAPE in the in-sample model and the much lower MAPE in the out-of-sample model, which means that FGM(1,1) can predict the memory process. FGM(1,1) can predict the maintenance cost of other weapon system.

Keywords

grey systems; maintenance engineering; weapons; FGM(1,1) model; MAPE; fractional GM(1,1) model; fractional order accumulation; grey system model; in-sample model; mean absolute percentage error; memory process prediction performance improvement; out-of-sample model; weapon system maintenance cost prediction; Analytical models; Atmospheric modeling; Educational institutions; Fitting; Maintenance engineering; Predictive models; Weapons; 1) model; GM(1; maintenance cost; weapon system;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2013 IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

Macao

ISSN

2166-9430

Print_ISBN

978-1-4673-5247-5

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/GSIS.2013.6714760

Filename

6714760