Research on selecting and nurturing core suppliers of complex equipment manufacturers based on Grey GERT model

Selecting and nurturing core suppliers is a key element for complex equipment manufacturers to maintain a competitive advantage and make profits. With nurturing activities are carried out, the relationship between manufacturers and suppliers will be transferred from one state to another state. It´s random and can be reflected by a certain probability. Manufacturers can´t find out the exact value of probability because of the limited information of real life. Analyzing the approximate range of probability will be much easier. Based on GERT network and Grey system theory, this paper constructs the Grey GERT model of selecting and nurturing core suppliers to study the probability that a prospective supplier developed into a core supplier. Meanwhile, it sets aircraft industry which is the typical industry of complex equipment as an example to give the specific solution and analysis process. The result shows that the value of the natural probability that a prospective supplier developed into a core supplier is just 7.6%. Based on it, this paper studies the effects of the strengthening nurture gave by manufacturers to increase the probability in different phases in order to find out the optimal phase. The result shows that the phase when a prospective supplier forms a general trading relationship with manufacturers is the optimal phase.