A methodology for estimating the probability of potential secondary conflicts

• Analyzed two types of potential secondary conflicts as a function of sector density, using FACET simulation • Results are sensitive to input parameter assumptions, but provide rough order-of-magnitudes: - Fraction of conflicts that are potential candidates for simultaneous resolution conflicts: roughly 10⁻³–10⁻² ■ Consistent with result from Consiglioet al. (2007): 11 / 6000 - Fraction of resolutions that are potentialcandidates for third-aircraft conflicts: roughly 10⁻¹ • Note: Actual probability of secondary conflict requires multiplication by some scaling factor, which might be very small - Especially true for third-aircraft conflicts which must include the probability of an intent-based error