DocumentCode :
681265
Title :
The impact of individual differences on the spreading of epidemic
Author :
Wang, Qijie ; Zhao, Ling Juan ; Huang, Rong Bin
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Manage., Shanghai Univ., Shanghai, China
fYear :
2013
fDate :
19-20 Aug. 2013
Firstpage :
13
Lastpage :
18
Abstract :
There is an urgent need to study the dynamics of disease spreading as recently infectious diseases such as SARS, H1N1, and foot and mouth disease greatly affect people´s daily life. Thus, we formulate a stochastic white Gaussian noise (SWGN) model by introducing the noise item and variant rates into a compartment model with a susceptibleinfective-hospitalized-recovered framework. Analytical results of the basic reproduction number, the maximum infectious population and the disease invasive influence are derived to investigate the dynamics of disease spreading. Furthermore, we apply a proposed random Runge-Kutta method to the model and link this to a case study of SARS outbreaks in Great Toronto Area (GTA) to study the impact of related parameters on the number of new reported emerging cases. Numerical results show that the introduction of white Gaussian noise and the variant rates makes the model fit with the real SARS data better than previous deterministic models. Both the theoretical results and numerical simulations provide instructive suggestions and feasible countermeasures for responses to disease propagation.
Keywords :
Gaussian noise; Runge-Kutta methods; diseases; random processes; stochastic processes; GTA; Great Toronto area; H1N1; SARS; SWGN model; compartment model; disease spreading dynamics; epidemic spreading; foot and mouth disease; noise item; random Runge-Kutta method; stochastic white Gaussian noise model; susceptibleinfective-hospitalized-recovered framework; variant rates; Emerging Infection Management; Epidemic Model; Stochastic Disturbance; White Gaussian Noise;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
iet
Conference_Titel :
Smart and Sustainable City 2013 (ICSSC 2013), IET International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Shanghai
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-84919-707-6
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1049/cp.2013.1974
Filename :
6737785
Link To Document :
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