Simulated PV power plant variability: Impact of utility-imposed ramp limitations in Puerto Rico

The variability of solar PV power plants has led to some utilities imposing ramp limitations. For example, the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) includes a 10% of capacity per minute limit on ramp rates produced by PV power plants in its minimum technical requirements for photovoltaic generation projects. However, it is difficult to determine storage requirements to comply with ramp limitations for plants in the planning or construction phase since the variability of the plant output is not known. In this paper, we use the wavelet variability model (WVM) to upscale irradiance measured in Mayaguez, PR to simulate various sizes of PV power plants. The results show that ramps will often exceed 10%, even for the largest plants (60MW) that benefit the most from in-plant spatial smoothing, meaning significant amounts of storage will be needed to meet the PREPA requirement. The results from Puerto Rico are compared to sites in San Diego and Oahu, Hawaii. Significant differences are seen in the ramp rate distributions of the three locations, demonstrating the importance of performing location-specific simulations.