Research on carbon emissions and its trend forecast of baoding

In this paper, the authors estimated the amount of energy-related carbon emissions from different types of primary energy, including coal, oil, and natural gas in Baoding from 2001 to 2010.Then a Gray Relational Analysis model was established on the driving factors of carbon emissions, which included the economic scale, the population scale, the fixed assets investment scale, the industrial scale, the economic structure, the population structure, the fixed assets investment structure, the industrial structure and the energy intensity. The empirical analysis result shows that the scaling factors are the primary factors resulting in increases in carbon emissions. The most obvious change of the structure factors is that the heavy industrialization has become the most important factor which has the largest impact on carbon emissions. The decreasing intensity of carbon emissions has a decisive inhibitory action for carbon emission. After that, Gray Forecasting Model has been used to forecast carbon emissions from 2011 to 2015 in Baoding, and the results show that the carbon emissions will maintain high growth rate, even if the nine driving factors remain at the current rate of development. Thus, sums up achievements and difficulties in current energy conservation and emission reductions work, and finally puts forward policy suggestions for the development of a low-carbon economy in Baoding.