Probabilistic Risk Assessment of MV Insulator Flashover Under Combined AC and Lightning-Induced Overvoltages

The effect of lightning-induced overvoltages is more profound in overhead distribution lines due to their limited height and low insulation level. Consequently, there is a high risk of line insulation flashover when exposed to lightning-induced overvoltages. This paper presents a probabilistic method to assess the risk of insulator flashover in medium-voltage overhead lines due to lightning-induced overvoltages. In order to accomplish this, a modified Gaussian cumulative distribution function has been used to predict the probability of single-phase, two-phase, and three-phase flashover of insulators under combined ac- and lightning-induced overvoltages. The validity of the modified probabilistic model is confirmed through experiments carried out in the high-voltage laboratory. Next, Monte Carlo simulations were performed on the simplified Rusck´s model to generate the distribution of peak lightning-induced overvoltages. Finally, the risk of insulator flashover is calculated based on the distributions of lightning-induced overvoltages and insulator flashover voltages. The proposed procedure could be considered beneficial to select the optimum insulation level required against lightning-induced overvoltages by distinguishing between single-phase and multiphase flashover faults.