Wind power prediction model considering smoothing effects

A novel model of wind farm power output prediction is presented to obtain more accurate results in this paper, in which the smoothing effect and wake effect are integrated into the four-component wind speed model. The speed of wind turbines on different spatial positions can be determined by simulating the influence of wake effect on the speed of wind and considering the delay of wind transmission in the proposed model, and then the smoothing effect of power output is expressed by the overlap of power to shape the power output curve. The simulation shows that the proposed model has high precision and is suitable to evaluate the shock of injected wind power to the power systems, and it is more applicable for power units reserved capacity adjustment and ramping rate correction, and is also good for appropriate reliability assessments of power system with wind farms connected.