Analyzing and Estimating the project success with a hybrid method based on fuzzy theory and decision making analysis

Forecasting the progress or regression of a project can definitely change the project´s direction and lead to implement a strategy with lower risks. In this paper a new technique is developed first in order to model the problem using Analytical Hierarchy Process as a Multi Criteria Decision Making and then to apply fuzzy theory in project management´s main factors such as: time, quality and cost by defining the triangular fuzzy membership function for each one in the MATLAB fuzzy toolbox based on if-then rules extracted from the experts´ experiences. This methodology can be used by project managers to reduce the risks of uncertainty when deciding for investments, resource allocation and other levels from planning to executing as well as easily determining the percent of performance. The contribution of this study lies in presenting a fuzzy mathematical programming methodology to fuzzy multi-objective PM decisions, and provides a systematic decision-making framework that facilitates the decision maker to interactively adjust the search direction until the preferred efficient solution is obtained.