Use of systemigrams to identify emergence in complex adaptive systems

This paper presents the application of a sociotechnical modeling framework to capture the wider global system impacts of the U.S. shale gas boom in a context of the larger global energy marketplace. The global energy markets represent a complex adaptive system. Existing models are not sufficient to reflect the complexity of changes presently occurring in the system, and fail to trace interactions across a wide enough system of interest. This project introduces conceptual models of flow and interaction in the global energy marketplace in order to inform the design of analytical models that identify more complex behaviors of the system. This is an example of a set of emerging methods and tools for the design of complex systems and represents an important first stage in a research program to integrate complexity analysis tools with traditional system design tools.