Long-term forecasts of peak power demand for planning the development of power systems in Poland

The Polish power engineering sector is currently facing serious challenges. High demand for final energy, inadequate production and transfer infrastructure, dependence on external gas and crude oil supplies as well as the need to comply with environmental protection regulations, make it necessary to take serious actions. In order to ensure the proper functioning of a power engineering system, it is crucial to monitor and forecast instant changes in the state of the system in different time horizons. In the case of development planning, these horizons are determined in multi-annual categories. A typical situation, where long-term forecasts are required, concerns decisions on the development of national systems of energy acquisition and supply. Decisions of that kind can only be made rationally on the basis of the most credible long-term forecasts of energy and power demand for national power engineering systems. Making a correct forecast for the whole system is a difficult task, which requires a lot of experience, knowledge and intuition. The paper presents the process of producing a long-term forecast for peak power demand in Poland on the basis of the canonical distribution of the random vector.