Using Bayesian network for risk analysis of inland waterway transportation system considering environmental effects

With the rapid economic development, the inland navigational environment has undergone tremendous changes. Ships are facing with several environmental impacts during the voyage, such as variation of water level, strong waves, poor visibility and so on. The safety issue of inland waterway transportation system (IWTS) confronts significant challenges. This paper identifies the safety critical factors (SCFs) of IWTS by using correlation coefficient analysis for calculating the correlations between several environmental factors and associated consequences. Meanwhile, Bayesian network technique is used to model the relationships between the discussed consequences and identified environmental factors such as visibility, wind, current. Based on the Bayesian network model, this paper quantitatively evaluates the safety level of several scenarios. Additionally, risk control options (RCOs) are proposed so as to enhance the navigational safety level under complex environmental conditions.