Preemptive network reinforcement at LV level considering uncertainty in prediction of PV penetration scenarios

Due to high renewable energy share in the distribution networks, reverse power flows can be observed, leading to challenges for the distribution network operators (DNOs). In case of high photovoltaic (PV) penetration in low voltage (LV) level, the LV networks are susceptible to voltage violations and overloading problems, especially at peak feed-in hours. This raises the necessity to undertake reinforcement measures by DNOs in order to maintain normal operation conditions. This paper analyzes the economic viability of the preemptive implementation of network reinforcement under consideration of the future PV penetration scenarios. To this end, the investment costs of reinforcement with four exemplary LV networks are calculated for 20 year scenarios of high PV penetration. The costs are calculated utilizing preemptive strategy and also a non-preemptive reference strategy. The cost saving potential with preemptive strategy considering theoretical perfect prediction of future scenarios as well as with inaccurate prediction is evaluated. The results show that the preemptive reinforcement has high potential for cost saving in the case of accurate prediction. Nevertheless, the cost saving drops when the accuracy decreases, hence it can be even higher than the reference strategy if the prediction certainty is too low.