Uncertainty considerations in frequency and duration analysis for large hydrothermal generating systems

Author

Da Silva, A. M Leite ; Coelho, J. ; Melo, A.C.G.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Electr. Emng., Catholic Univ. of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Volume

139

Issue

3

fYear

1992

fDate

5/1/1992 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

277

Lastpage

285

Abstract

The authors present a general and practical method for evaluating the mean and variance of the frequency and duration indices for a single-area system. The method is based on discrete convolution, which is especially efficient when applied to large hydrothermal generating systems. It recognises the uncertain nature of generating unit transition rates and forecast peak loads by treating these parameters as random variables with specified statistics. Clustering techniques are used to model the uncertainties in the output capacities of hydraulic units. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the impact of parameter uncertainties on the resulting indices of typical systems, including the IEEE Reliability Test System and the Brazilian South/Southeastern generating system

Keywords

electric power generation; power systems; Brazilian South/Southeastern generating system; IEEE Reliability Test System; clustering techniques; duration analysis; forecast peak loads; frequency analysis; generating unit transition rates; hydraulic units; hydrothermal generating systems; random variables;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Generation, Transmission and Distribution, IEE Proceedings C

Publisher

iet

ISSN

0143-7046

Type

jour

Filename

141503