Title : 
A search strategy for assessing a business opportunity
         
        
            Author : 
Shepherd, Dean A. ; Lévesque, Moren
         
        
            Author_Institution : 
Leeds Sch. of Bus., Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO, USA
         
        
        
        
        
            fDate : 
5/1/2002 12:00:00 AM
         
        
        
        
            Abstract : 
The optimal stopping model presented here explores opportunity assessment with reference to a tradeoff between, on the one hand, reducing decision accuracy and, on the other hand, both increasing search costs and a higher probability that the opportunity is grasped by a competitor. From this model we propose a heuristic that specifies three threshold lines to define four decision areas. Decision area 1 prescribes the business opportunity be accepted, decision areas 2 and 4 prescribe that search continue, and decision area 3 prescribes that the business opportunity be rejected. We use a simulation to investigate the robustness of the heuristic beyond the model´s boundary conditions
         
        
            Keywords : 
commerce; decision theory; dynamic programming; research and development management; business opportunity assessment; decision areas; decision model; dynamic programming; entrepreneurship; heuristic robustness; innovation; opportunity recognition; opportunity search; optimal stopping; search costs; search strategy; sequential information gathering; simulation; threshold lines; Boundary conditions; Cost function; Dynamic programming; Information management; Innovation management; Investments; Research and development; Robustness; Technological innovation;
         
        
        
            Journal_Title : 
Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on
         
        
        
        
        
            DOI : 
10.1109/TEM.2002.1010882