Author_Institution :
Nevada Univ., Las Vegas, NV, USA
Abstract :
Examples of inaccurate or questionable predictions exist in the economic, political, social and scientific fields. Predictions about the future states of dynamic physical systems fare somewhat better if the model is accurately known, and if the future inputs are known, at least in an accurate statistical sense. Some procedures, parameters and assumptions that go into prediction have been discussed. Some of the pitfalls and potential problems have been demonstrated by examples
Keywords :
estimation theory; prediction theory; statistical analysis; dynamic physical systems; estimation; future inputs; modeling; questionable predictions; statistics; subjective predictions; Autoregressive processes; Biological system modeling; Covariance matrix; Curve fitting; Equations; Extrapolation; Matrix decomposition; Polynomials; Predictive models; System identification;
