DocumentCode
787299
Title
Questionable predictions
Author
Brogan, William L.
Author_Institution
Nevada Univ., Las Vegas, NV, USA
Volume
15
Issue
2
fYear
1996
Firstpage
12
Lastpage
16
Abstract
Examples of inaccurate or questionable predictions exist in the economic, political, social and scientific fields. Predictions about the future states of dynamic physical systems fare somewhat better if the model is accurately known, and if the future inputs are known, at least in an accurate statistical sense. Some procedures, parameters and assumptions that go into prediction have been discussed. Some of the pitfalls and potential problems have been demonstrated by examples
Keywords
estimation theory; prediction theory; statistical analysis; dynamic physical systems; estimation; future inputs; modeling; questionable predictions; statistics; subjective predictions; Autoregressive processes; Biological system modeling; Covariance matrix; Curve fitting; Equations; Extrapolation; Matrix decomposition; Polynomials; Predictive models; System identification;
fLanguage
English
Journal_Title
Potentials, IEEE
Publisher
ieee
ISSN
0278-6648
Type
jour
DOI
10.1109/45.489731
Filename
489731
Link To Document