Title :
Minimizing regret with label efficient prediction
Author :
Cesa-Bianchi, Nicolò ; Lugosi, Gábor ; Stoltz, Gilles
Author_Institution :
Dipt. di Sci. dell´´Informazione, Univ. di Milano, Italy
fDate :
6/1/2005 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
We investigate label efficient prediction, a variant, proposed by Helmbold and Panizza, of the problem of prediction with expert advice. In this variant, the forecaster, after guessing the next element of the sequence to be predicted, does not observe its true value unless he asks for it, which he cannot do too often. We determine matching upper and lower bounds for the best possible excess prediction error, with respect to the best possible constant predictor, when the number of allowed queries is fixed. We also prove that Hannan consistency, a fundamental property in game-theoretic prediction models, can be achieved by a forecaster issuing a number of queries growing to infinity at a rate just slightly faster than logarithmic in the number of prediction rounds.
Keywords :
game theory; prediction theory; Hannan consistency; game-theoretic prediction model; individual sequence; label efficient prediction; lower bound matching; on-line learning; prediction with expert advice; regret minimization; upper bound matching; Economic forecasting; Game theory; H infinity control; Minimax techniques; Pattern recognition; Predictive models; Statistical learning; Individual sequences; label efficient prediction; on-line learning; prediction with expert advice;
Journal_Title :
Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TIT.2005.847729