Long-Term Destructive SEE Risk and Calculations Using Multiple “Worst-Case” Events Versus Modelling

Author

Jiggens, Piers ; Evans, Hugh ; Truscott, Pete ; Heynderickx, Daniel ; Fan Lei ; DeDonder, Erwin

Author_Institution

Space Environ. & Effects Sect., Eur. Space Res. & Technol. Centre (ESTEC), Noordwijk, Netherlands

Volume

61

Issue

4

fYear

2014

fDate

Aug. 2014

Firstpage

1695

Lastpage

1702

Abstract

A statistical analysis comparing the number of CREME-96 worst-week environments to a space environment particle flux data analysis and the PSYCHIC model is presented. This analysis provides an indication of the number of worst-week environments that are required to obtain a particular confidence level and determine the associated risk of a destructive single event effect over a mission but highlights the drawback of such an approach compared to using a statistical model. A method for direct assessment of the number of Single Event Effects expected specific to components and shielding geometries using the European Space Agency SEPEM system is also presented.

Keywords

aerospace instrumentation; radiation effects; risk analysis; solar cosmic ray particles; statistical analysis; CREME-96 worst week environments; European Space Agency; PSYCHIC model; SEPEM system; destructive single event effect; long term destructive SEE risk; multiple worst-case events; shielding geometry; single event effects; space environment particle flux data analysis; statistical analysis; Analytical models; Data models; Geometry; Ionization; Protons; Space vehicles; Time series analysis; Single Event Effect (SEE); Solar Particle Event (SPE); statistical modelling;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Nuclear Science, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0018-9499

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/TNS.2014.2302994

Filename

6800144