Load behaviour prediction under blackout conditions using a fuzzy expert system

This paper proposes a method to forecast load behaviour during restoration of power systems after total or partial blackouts. Load behaviour after blackouts can be anomalous and differ significantly from that during normal operation conditions. A heuristic top-down approach was adopted to develop the forecasting method, using an expert system based on linguistic variables and fuzzy logic rules as its central core. The approach addresses the main aspects of load behaviour during re-energisation and is capable of representing physical phenomena. The proposed methodology was tested with data from real electrical power substations and these test results are presented