Using a semi-guided Monte Carlo method for faster simulation of forced outages of generating units

The authors describe a semi-guided Monte Carlo technique to schedule forced outage periods of generating units. The key advantage of this method lies in its ability to create forced-outage schedules that are statistically balanced. When tested against the pure Monte-Carlo method, the semi-guided Monte Carlo technique provided much faster convergence and greatly reduced the number of Monte Carlo iterations required to produce reliable product cost results. The Electricity Supply Board of Ireland has implemented this technique in its chronological dispatch program