Comparison of SEU rate prediction techniques

A variety of methods are in use for predicting upset rates. The predictions of several of these methods are compared with flight data from the microelectronics package on the CRRES (Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite). The implications of current cosmic ray research relative to these results are discussed. The CRRES data appear to satisfy the mission goal of pointing to a good method of calculating upset rates in space. The data in their present form demonstrate the problems that exist when using a single threshold for all parts for upset rate predictions and point to the use of an integral approach using the rectangular parallelepiped geometry in a CREME-type code. The data also point toward the need for updated cosmic ray models for use with short missions