Probabilistic Simulation of a Power System under Transmission Constrained Economic Dispatch

The behaviour of a power system under a transmissionand generation constrained economic dispatch strategy, is simulated over the feasible range of system load using recently developed techniques based on the continuation method. All optimum variables of interest including costs, incremental costs, power generated, power and energy flows, and the Lagrange multipliers of the active variables, can be easily computed as analytic piece-wise linear or quadratic functions of the system load. These results are combined with a load duration curve model of the probabilistic load behaviour to generate duration curve models for all the above variables. The new load duration curves then serve to generate a wide range of probabilistic measures of the system behaviour useful in the estimation of production costs,and in planning.