A Direct Method for Multi-Area Reliability Evaluation

This paper describes a model developed for multiarea generation system reliability evaluation. It is based on an analytic characterization of the "system failure modes", when the interconnected generation system is represented by a network flow model. Reliability indices are obtained as functions of each failure mode probability and expected capacity, which are calculated directly by "integrating" the system capacity distribution function over the set that characterizes the failure mode. The dependence of generating capacity on system hydrological conditions is explicitly represented. Sensitivity indices of the expected system unserved demand with respect to area generation and interconnection reinforcements are also obtained. A case study with a 5-area Brazilian system is presented and discussed.