Capacity Planning with Flow and Reliability Evaluation Using Monte Carlo Simulation

A Monte Carlo method for reliability assessment, network flow estimation, and capacity planning has been developed. An expansion strategy improves the system reliability (ie, reduces the system mean demand not served); this strategy selects the element with the highest full load ratio for capacity expansions. The procedure considers capacity-limited sources and links as well as multiple sinks with demand-forecast uncertainties. The accuracy of the solution and the computing requirements increase not only as the values of flow quantization and capacity increment step are decreased, but also as the number of simulations is increased. These values are selected depending upon the result accuracy required and the configuration of the system. This approach is demonstrated using an example network with 2 sources, 7 links, and 4 sinks.