Effects of Wind Power on Bulk System Adequacy Evaluation Using the Well-Being Analysis Framework

The well-being analysis framework provides a bridge between the deterministic and probabilistic approaches to bulk power system adequacy and security assessment using the operating states designated as healthy, marginal and at risk. This paper illustrates the effects on the probability, frequency and average duration of the three operating states of adding wind power to a system or replacing some existing conventional generating capacity by wind power. The described studies incorporate the effects of load forecast uncertainty on the operating state reliability indices and are conducted using sequential Monte Carlo simulation.