Power system expansion planning under uncertainty

Author

Gorenstin, B.G. ; Campodonico, N.M. ; Costa, J.P. ; Pereira, M.V.F.

Author_Institution

Centro de Pequisas de Energia Electrica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Volume

8

Issue

1

fYear

1993

fDate

2/1/1993 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

129

Lastpage

136

Abstract

A methodology is described for expansion planning of power systems under uncertainty in factors such as demand growth, fuel cost, delay in project completion, and financial constraints The approach draws upon three classes of techniques: decomposition and stochastic optimization provide the basic framework, and allow an implicit representation of alternative investment strategies; decision analysis is used to represent the dynamic aspects of decision-making as uncertainties are resolved over time; and hedging objectives from tradeoff analysis help select flexible and resilient expansion strategies. Case studies within the Brazilian system are presented and discussed

Keywords

decision theory; economics; investment; optimisation; power system planning; stochastic processes; Brazil; case study; decision analysis; decomposition; delays; demand growth; economics; expansion planning; fuel cost; hedging objectives; investment; power system planning; project completion; stochastic optimization; tradeoff analysis; uncertainty; Constraint optimization; Cost function; Delay effects; Fuels; Investments; Power system analysis computing; Power system planning; Stochastic systems; Strategic planning; Uncertainty;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0885-8950

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/59.221258

Filename

221258