Error-probability bounds for continuous-time decision problems

The evaluation of error-probability bounds for binary detection problems involving continuons-time stochastic processes as signals is considered. These bounds are of interest because, in even the simplest detection problems, the computation of the exact probabilities of error is usually mathematically intractable. The method used consists of applying some results from martingale theory to detection and estimation problems. Only discontinuous observations that contain the rate process associated with a counting process are considered. The problem addressed is to evaluate Chernoff bounds on error probabilities for the likelihood-ratio test. The solution procedure consists of a measure transformation technique that makes it possible to obtain an expression for the Chernoff bound in terms of an expectation of a multiplicative functional of the conditional mean signal (rate process) estimates. If the processes involved are Markov, it is then possible to represent the above expression as a solution to a partial differential equation that is derived from the backward equation of Kolmogorov. The above procedure is repeated when the optimal estimates are replaced by suboptimal estimates. Examples are given to illustrate the technique.