Incorporation of large stochastic sources in the power system

The paper derives techniques for online and offline computer analysis of the power system in the presence of large amounts of stochastic-source (wind, solar, tidal etc.) generation and develops an extension of the probabilistic simulation (Beleriaux-Booth) technique for use in generation expansion planning. The online techniques are employed for the assessment of spinning reserve and unloadable generation requirements and the prediction of probable system frequency deviations. The offline methods are used for energy production estimation taking account of correlation effects and the required minimum levels of conventional generation that must be on the system for regulating (load following) the continuously varying stochastic-source power generation.