Social decision analysis

How can a diverse free society find decision mechanisms that are logical, efficient, and timely? This is a problem that has challenged man at least from the time of Plato´s Republic. We see today factions of society arguing over alternatives rather than over values or probabilities. Adversary proceedings encourage people to advocate extremes rather than a careful balance of several considerations. Decision analysis, a logical procedure for balancing the many uncertain, complex, and dynamic factors that characterize a decision, offers promise of a new and valuable procedure for social decisions. The decision analyst creates an extrapersonal explicit model of the decision under consideration. Information on possible alternatives, uncertainties, relationships, or preferences can come from different groups and still be represented within the same decision model, with the implications for the decision apparent to all. One can imagine a society where decision making has become decentralized, where distinct bodies are responsible for creating social alternatives, assessing the probabilities of various outcomes for each alternative, and setting the preferences of society. Once the alternatives, information, and preferences were established, society would make the decision using only the principles of logic. Applications to automotive pollution, hurricane seeding, and nuclear safety demonstrate the approach.