Statistical electricity demand modelling from consumer billing data

The paper develops a statistical framework for the modelling of electricity consumption distributions. The method is based directly upon consumer billing data and it is shown that a generalised form of the Weibull distribution model may be successfully applied. Illustrative results are given for a sample of 1653 consumers in the public housing sector. It is concluded that two statistically separate consumption distribution classes are present and the parameters of the appropriate models are estimated. The relation of these models to the problem of demand forecasting is discussed.