The future outlook for U.S. electricity supply and demand

In this paper we assess the prospects of the United States´ electric utility industry from now to 1995. The methodology employed is a mathematical model of electricity supply and demand that has been constructed to analyze the future behavior of the industry in response to changing resource and regulatory parameters. A set of supply and demand projections derived from the model is compared and contrasted with other recently published and publicly available forecasts. Among the uncertainties in the future outlook discussed in this paper are the absence of a clear ability to attract the capital necessary to finance orderly expansion, the difficulties in closing the fuel cycle, and the continuing decline in average-to-peak load ratios.