New approach to stochastic data analysis: the Nile river at Aswan

An autoregressive model with Markovian assumption on the parameters (a.r.m.p.) is developed and utilised for the design of an adaptive system in the identification and estimation of stochastic plant parameters. The model is used as a prediction tool for the annual flows of the Nile river at Aswan. The algorithm shows that the a.r.m.p. offers certain advantages over existing modelling techniques.