An historical analysis of engineering college research and degree programs as dynamic systems

An analysis is made to illuminate and interpret the recent history of engineering education. The production of engineering degrees and research is modeled as a dynamic process using parameters derived for that purpose. The dominant fact in the production of bachelors degrees is the damped oscillatory growth which characterized the two decades after World War II. Short-term fluctuations exist, but over the long term the growth rate matches U.S. population growth rate. Graduate degree production increased at a constant 12 percent per year between 1956 and 1968, resulting in the ratio of graduate degrees to B.S. degrees increasing from 1:6 to the current 1:2. Methods are developed to classify colleges of engineering according to their dominant characteristic as graduate or undergraduate institutions. Growth in Ph.D. production is shown to have been influenced by a "geographical potential" as well as other factors. Application is made to a method for planning graduate research centers in developing countries. Cost effectiveness in graduate research is shown to correlate with size. The largest colleges are shown to have maintained their productivity while smaller ones declined during periods of decreasing national production. Methods for critical comparison of colleges, departments, and even professors, are discussed and illustrated.