An attenuation time series model for propagation forecasting

A key problem in the efficient use of higher (Ka- and V-band) frequencies lies in the mitigation of propagation impairments caused by meteorological phenomena. The traditional approach to this problem is based upon a relatively simplistic statistical model in the form of a fade margin. At higher frequencies this traditional approach becomes inefficient due to the large margin required. This inefficiency has lead to the introduction of dynamic fade mitigation techniques (FMTs). We present a method of generating attenuation time series that can be used for the development and evaluation of FMTs. The method we propose is based on the use of proven numerical weather prediction models in conjunction with a propagation model. This approach has two unique aspects. First, the spatial correlation and dynamic behavior of the attenuation fields are inherited from the meteorological environment. Second, the model can provide forecasts of attenuation. It is foreseen that this a priori knowledge of the occurrence of fades, their likely depth and likely duration can be exploited to manage the resource control of entire networks. This paper presents a description of the method and demonstrates the ability to generate attenuation time series. Conclusions are drawn regarding its use in real-time for network resource management.