Ballistic Missile Defense and the Possibility of Catastrophic Mistakes

Ballistic missile defense will require the automatic release of defensive weapons. This paper considers the consequences of mistakes if both the United States and Soviet Union deploy such defensive systems. Each such system would pose a threat to the other. There is a danger that a mistake or event could trigger rapidly expanding exchanges between the opposing defensive systems. Through such interactions, defensive systems could self-activate and amplify relatively minor mistakes to catastrophic levels. Assuring against such catastrophic amplifications while also assuring the effectiveness and survivability of such defensive systems is a necessary requirement that has not been adequately addressed.