A Statistical Model to Estimate an Upper Bound on the Probability of Failure of a System Installed on an Irradiated Vehicle

This paper presents a risk assessment model suitable for predicting an upper bound on the probability of failure of an electronic system installed inside a vehicle that is irradiated externally or internally. Only limited information on the immunity of the device and associated cabling is required. As an example, the model is used to demonstrate an upper bound on the probability of failure of a system due to irradiation from digital audio broadcast transmitters in the U.K. The failure probability is found to be highly dependent on the clearance distance above the vehicle chassis of wire looms attached to the system, and to the accuracy with which the electric field is measured during an immunity test for the system/cable combination. The failure probability predicted by the risk assessment model is consistent with common observations of a log-normal distribution in the terminating power of receiving cables inside an irradiated vehicle or reverberation chamber.