استفاده از روش مدل ‌سازي بيزين در مديريت و حفاظت حيات وحش (مطالعه موردي ارزيابي رضامندي زيستگاه گوزن زرد ايراني)

Using Bayesian Modeling in Wildlife Conservation and Management (Case Study: Evaluating Persian Fallow Deer Habitat Suitability)

ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎي زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﺨﺸﯽ از ﺗﻨﻮع زﯾﺴﺘﯽ را ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ دﻫﻨﺪ، اﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﻨﺪ در ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﯾﮏ ﯾﺎ ﭼﻨﺪ ﮔﻮﻧـﻪ ﻣـﻮرد اﺳـﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮﻧﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان اﺑﺰار ﭘﺸﺘﯿﺒﺎن ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮي در ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎﻫﯽ و ﺗـﺄﺛﯿﺮ آن ﺑـﺮ رﺿـﺎﻣﻨﺪي زﯾﺴـﺘﮕﺎه ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺳﻮدﻣﻨﺪ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. ﮔﻮزن زرد اﯾﺮاﻧﯽ از ﺟﻤﻠﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻫﺎﯾﯽ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ وﺟﻮد اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﯽ، اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﻫﺎي زﯾﺴـﺘﮕﺎﻫﯽ ﻧﺎﺷـﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ اي دارد ﮐـﻪ ﻫﻨﻮز در ﻃﺮح ﻫﺎي آزﻣﺎﯾﺸﯽ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و ﻓﻘﻂ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﯿﺎت و داﻧﺶ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎن، ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮي ﻫﺎ ﻗﺮار ﻣﯽ ﮔﯿﺮد. در اﯾـﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن داده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮان ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﺑﯿﺰﯾﻦ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻋﻠﻤﯽ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺑﺎ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ و داﻧـﺶ ﮐﯿﻔﯽ ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎن را ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻣﻨﺒﻊ ﺑﺎ ارزش اﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﯽ ﺑﺎ ﯾﮑﺪﯾﮕﺮ ﺗﻠﻔﯿﻖ و ﺑﻪ ﺷﮑﻞ اﺑﺰار ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺘﯽ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮐـﺮد. ﻫﻤـﻮاره اﯾـﻦ ﻧـﻮع داده ﻫـﺎ ﺑـﺎ ﻣﯿﺰاﻧﯽ از ﻋﺪم اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﻫﻤﺮاه اﺳﺖ، اﻣﺎ ﻣﺪل ﺳﺎزي ﺑﯿﺰﯾﻦ اﯾﻦ ﻋﺪم اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن را ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﮐﺮده و ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﯽ اراﺋﻪ ﻣﯽ دﻫﺪ ﮐـﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ ﮔﯿﺮي ﻫﺎ ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد و آراي ﮐﺎرﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎن ﺻﺎﺣﺐ ﻧﻈﺮ، ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ رﺿـﺎﻣﻨﺪي زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﮔﻮزن زرد اﯾﺮاﻧﯽ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﯾﯽ و ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻧﻤﻮدار ﻋﻠّﺖ و ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻟﯽ در ﭼﺎرﭼﻮب ﻣـﺪل ﺑـﺎور ﺑﯿـﺰﯾﻦ ﻗـﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻨـﺪ. ﭼﮕـﻮﻧﮕﯽ رواﺑـﻂ اﯾـﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻣﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ رﺿﺎﻣﻨﺪي زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﺑﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻﺗﯽ ﮐﻪ از ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﺎن اﺧﺬ ﺷـﺪ در ﻣـﺪل ﺗﻌﺮﯾـﻒ و ﺳـﭙﺲ ﭘﺎﺳـﺦ ﺧﺮوﺟـﯽ ﻣـﺪل (رﺿـﺎﻣﻨﺪي زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه) ﺑﻪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻫﺮ ﯾﮏ از ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ورودي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﺎ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ و ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ ﺳﻨﺠﯽ، ﻣﺪل ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪه اﻋﺘﺒﺎرﺳـﻨﺠﯽ ﺷـﺪ. اﯾﻦ ﻣﺪل ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ اﯾﻨﮑﻪ درﺻﺪ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن از ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ رﻓﺘﺎر ﺳﯿﺴـﺘﻢ را اراﺋـﻪ ﻣﯽ ﮐﻨـﺪ، ﻣﯽ ﺗﻮاﻧـﺪ ﻫﻤﮕـﺎم ﺑـﺎ اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ اﻃﻼﻋـﺎت در ﺧﺼـﻮص اوﻟﻮﯾﺖ ﻫﺎي زﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎﻫﯽ ﮔﻮزن زرد اﯾﺮاﻧﯽ، ﺑﻪ ﻫﻨﮕﺎم ﺷﺪه و ﺻﺤّﺖ آن اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ.

Although habitat models deals with some aspects of biodiversity, but it can be used in conservation management of single or few species. These models are useful in predicting changes in habitat variables and their effects on species habitat suitability and can be used as decision support tools. Persian fallow deer is a valuable species with unknown habitat requirements in some extent and their habitat ecology are not evaluated in experimental studies. Decision makers only rely on expert knowledge. This study aimed to show how Bayesian modeling framework can be used to integrate expert knowledge and other available data in different formats. There is uncertainty about habitat data, and Bayesian modeling can handle this problem using probabilities in its calculations. In this study, key factors affecting Persian fallow deer habitat suitability and their cause and effects have been identified using expert knowledge and also available published data. In the next step, influence diagram were entered into a Bayesian belief networks. The model was populated with subjective probabilities elicited from experts. Model behavior was validated using scenario and sensitivity analysis. The model can incorporate uncertainty into its prediction, and also can be updated when new knowledge about this species and its habitat priorities emerges.