تحليل آماري بحران‌هاي دمايي شهر قم در رابطه با مصارف انرژي

Statistical Analysis of Thermal Crisis of Qom in Relation to Energy Consumption

رخداد دماهاي بحراني كمينه و بيشينه، اثرات زيادي در افزايش هزينه مصرف انرژي و آب دارند. با هدف تحليل آماري بحران هاي دمايي شهر قم، آمار روزانه دماي كمينه و بيشينه ايستگاه قم در طي دوره آماري 92-1386 از سازمان هواشناسي و همچنين آمار مصرف روزانه آب، برق و گاز در طول دوره آماري مذكور از سازمان هاي مربوطه اخذ گرديد. با استفاده از همبستگي، روابط دما با مصارف انرژي مشخص شد. براي اين همبستگي از شاخص ضريب دما TI استفاده گرديد. نتايج نشان مي دهند، دما و مصرف گاز داراي يك رابطه معكوس هستند. ضريب دماي كمينه داراي بيشترين رابطه با مصرف گاز است. آستانه مصرف با توجه به دما دو ميليون مترمكعب در روز است. مصارف بالاتر از حد آستانه داراي بيشترين رابطه با دما بوده و براساس شاخص MSVI ماه هاي مصرف گاز در بالاتر از حد آستانه آبان تا ارديبهشت است. تغييرات دما با تغييرات مصرف آب و برق رابطه مستقيم دارد، ضريب دماي بيشينه داراي بيشترين رابطه با مصرف آب و برق است. آستانه مصرف آب با توجه به دما 250 هزار مترمكعب در روز و براي برق 8000 مگاوات در روز است. مصارف بالاتر از حد آستانه براي آب و برق، رابطه بالاتري با دما نسبت به مصارف كمتر از حد آستانه دارد. بر اساس شاخص MSVI ماه هاي مصرف آب و برق در حد بالاتر از آستانه، خرداد تا شهريور ماه است

. Introduction Temperature is important in the consumption of water and energy through which influences the activities of humans, especially in urban areas. The high variations of temperature in both diurnal and annual scales increases the consumption of energy in winter and summer seasons to moderate the climate to live with. The higher the temperature range the higher the energy consumption. In hot season the higher consumption of water makes the critical impact of temperature manifolds. These circumstances become crisis as we take into account the warming of the temperature and decreasing the water and energy sources of the country, especially in dry regions such as Qum region where the water is already scarce. The climate of Qum is getting warmer with more heat waves in summer increasing the demand for more electricity and water consumption. Based on the present conditions and increasing trend of global warming the managers and people should become aware of the higher water and energy demands in the future. This study aims to identify the effect of temperature on consuming water and electricity and gas to manage the consumption of energy and environmental pollution by using less and healthier energy. It is hopeful that the findings from the study can help to manage the energy and purge the environment ofQom. This study tries to uncover the energy and water crisis of the city to make the managers to take actions before the crisis happens. 2. Material and methods In order to study the relation between temperature trend and utility consumptions in the city of Qum, the daily min and max temperatures of Qum weather station during 2007-2013 period were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Iran. The daily utility consumption data for water, electricity and gas have been obtained from the related organizations for the same period. To calculate the relation between temperature and energy consumption the daily temperature index was defined: 〖TI〗_t=T_ti w_i 〖 TI〗_t = daily temperature index T_(ti )= daily min or max temperature w_i = the consumer index of year i and was calculated from: w_i= P_i/P P_i = totalconsumers of year i P = total consumers of the base year. The monthly variations of energy consumption was calculated from: E_(ij )=ij /¯E j ij = consumption of month i of year j j=consumption of year j 3. Results and Discussion The relation between temperature and energy components of gas, water and electricity is high and significant. This value is .80 for gas, .79 for water and .71 for electricity. Natural gas is very sensitive for min temperature while the other two are most related to max temperature. The analysis of results showed that the relation increased after a threshold. This threshold was 2000000 cubic meters per day for natural gas, 250000 cubic meters per day for water and 8000 mega wat per day for electricity. This means that all of these components are not sensitive to temperature increase because people use them for their normal life. But only when the temperature increases the extra amounts should be used to keep the living conditions tolerable. These thresholds could be used as an indicator of global warming impact on energy consumption. Which changes the normal life trend and takes it toward the hazardous fates at critical steps. The thresholds show on the other hand the impact of extreme temperature values such as very low or very high temperatures. For example in winter very low temperatures are very important in increasing the consumption of natural gas to make homes warm enough to live in. Iranians do not use electricity for warming house. This is why that the consumption of electricity is not very critical in winter. But cooling the houses is dependent only on electricity in the warm period of year. Water consumption has also been highlighted in the warm season due to its use in air conditioners and green space maintenance. During the cold season water is used only for living basic needs. 4. Conclusion There is a direct relation between temperature increase and energy consumptionespecially in the extreme values of temperature. This means that normal temperature increase or in other words the normal variations of temperature do not change the energy consumption dramatically. Only critical warming or cooling of the weather affects the energy and the users and managers should be aware of this problem. Water and electricity are sensitive for higher temperatures of warm season while natural gas is sensitive for very cold temperatures in winter