تحليل و مدل سازي استوكستيك تراز متوسط ماهانه سطح آب درياچه ماهون پوزك

Stochastic Modeling of Monthly Lake Level Fluctuations Time Series (Hamun-e-Puzak)

Hamun lake is one of the greatest fresh water sources and an international protected lake in Iran. It is very useful and important to look at the lake level for water supply and the protection of this international ecosystem. Many approaches have been suggested to model lake levels, but each of them have been useful for only a specific area. In this research, boye upon the average monthly water level at the Chong-e-khargushi station in Hamun-e-Puzak, the periodic and the correlation structure of the lake was studied and a selected stochastic time series model was fitted, the accuracy ofʹ models for forecasting and data generation was investigated. The resuts showed that, model can be used for forecasting of wet years and can be used for data generation.