پديد آورندگان :
پرهيز، فرياد دانشگاه اصفهان , ضرابي، اصغر دانشگاه اصفهان , محمدي، جمال دانشگاه اصفهان , مشكيني، ابوالفضل دانشگاه تربيت مدرس
كليدواژه :
تحليل مكاني , كانون جرم‌خيز , جرم كيف‌قاپي , جيب‌بري و كيف‌زني , منطقة 12 , كلان‌شهر تهران
چكيده فارسي :
اين پژوهش، با هدف شناسايي و تحليل مراكز جرم‌خيز كيف‌قاپي و جيب‌بري در منطقة 12 كلان‌شهر تهران، با استفاده از مدل‌هاي آماري و سامانه اطلاعات جغرافيايي انجام شده است. روش پژوهش، توصيفي‌تحليلي و از نوع كاربردي است و براي شناسايي الگوهاي فضايي توزيع جرايم مورد نظر، از آزمون‌هاي آماري تحليل فضا شامل شاخص خودهمبستگي فضايي و شاخص موران، و براي تشخيص مراكز جرم‌خيز شهري از روش تخمين تراكم كرنل استفاده شده است. جامعة آماري پژوهش، جرايم كيف‌قاپي و جيب‌بري است كه در سال 1387 در محدودة منطقة 12شهر تهران انجام شده و براي مثال، 372 فقره از جرايم كيف‌قاپي و جيب‌بري منطقة 12 شهرداري تهران بررسي شده است. يافته‌ها نشان مي‌دهد الگوي فضاي جرايم، از الگوي خوشه‌اي و متمركز پيروي مي‌كند و تحليل زماني روزهاي هفته و ساعات شبانه‌روز اين جرايم، نشان مي‌دهد زمان اوج وقوع جرم كيف‌قاپي افراد موتورسوار، روزهاي پنجشنبه و در ساعت 11 با فراواني 10 تا 15 جرم، كيف‌قاپي افراد پياده، روزهاي دوشنبه ساعت 30:10 تا 30:12 و سه‌شنبه ساعت 14 تا 30:14 با فراواني 5/1 تا 2 جرم و جيب‌بري و كيف‌زني در روزهاي پنجشنبه ساعت 30:17 تا 30:18 با فراواني 3 تا 4 جرم در اين ساعت است. همچنين، بررسي پراكندگي وقوع جرايم در محدوده مورد نظر، نشان مي‌دهد كه توزيع اين جرايم در سطح منطقه پراكنده است؛ به‌طوري‌كه چندين مركز جرم‌خيز در كل منطقه تشكيل شده است. از طرف‌ديگر، محل وقوع اين‌گونه جرايم، معمولاً مكان‌هاي شلوغ و پرازدحام مانند جلوي بانك‌ها، مراكز تجاري و ميدان‌ها است.
چكيده لاتين :
Introduction The advent of different kinds of social abnormalities in the exhausted textures of Tehran Metropolis have become a very important concern for urban, judicial, and security managers. Nowadays, it is utterly identified that there is an established relationship between committing crimes and the place of their commitment. In fact, considering the place, as the immediate cause of social pathologies compared with the individual or structural factors, it seems more feasible to provide practical solutions from prevention of social pathologies. One of the most important and complex issues of Tehran metropolitan city at the present time is the high frequency of crimes and social disorders in the con text of the city's old areas. In addition to creating a sense of insecurity and pessimism, this has caused heavy mental and physical injuries on the shoulders of citizens despite great efforts and budget expenditures. According to the official statistics, the number of crimes of the 12th District of Tehran that is known as the Nasery-eraTehran, is much higher than other areas of Tehran. Thus, increase in social pathologies with physical injuries has made this area a dangerous place and hard to live. The first step should be to provide a time-space analysis of various social pathologies of the area, so that strategies to confront these disorders will be decided soon. Material & Methods This study is a practical study with comparative and analytical approach. To identify and understand the spatial pattern of crime in the city, it has used statistical models and graphics based on the geographical information system (GIS). The most important statistical tests used are Spatial autocorrelation and Moran's Index. In this study, in addition to statistical tests, graphics methods such as kernel density estimation method has been also used. The data related to crimes of the 12th District have been considered as point events. Discussion of Results & Conclusions
According to the research results, the degree of committed crimes in Area 12, also known as Tehran of Nasseri Age, is much more than other areas in Tehran. Therefore, the increase in social abnormalities along with physical anomalies are among current issues and problems of this area and have faced this area with serious problems in terms of social abnormalities and made the access to strategies for controlling and coping with these anomalies necessary. Accordingly, the present study is aimed at identifying and analyzing spatially crime-prone canons of pick-pocketing in Area 12 of Tehran Metropolis using statistical models and GIS. According to the research findings, the value of Moran's I for the total of social anomalies of pick-pocketing in the area is 0.37 and z-score is 17.76. Regarding the positive value of Moran's I and the high absolute Z-score, the dispersion pattern of social disorder of pick-pocketing can be calculated using the clustering method. In other words, with a confidence level as 99%, it can be claimed that social anomalies and disorder of pick-pocketing in Area 12 are distributed in the space in a clustered form. Therefore, the investigated spatial pattern of crimes follows clustering and centralized patterns. Temporal analysis of committing the crime of pick-pocketing using motorcycles in Area 12 indicates the general tendency of this crime in Sundays, Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays and from 10.30 AM to 18.30 PM. Temporal analysis of committing pick-pocketing by pedestrian criminals indicates the general tendency of committing this crime in middle days of a week from 8 AM to 14 PM. Among investigated crimes, pick-pocketing in Thursdays and from 17.30 to 18.30 PM is the peak of committing it with 3 to 4 cases of committing it in this time and day. It seems that the reason of high rate of this crime in this time and day is more presence of people for purchases in days of weekend days and in afternoons in shopping malls of Area 12. These issues provide appropriate opportunities for criminals to select their victims and commit their crimes in this time and among crowded population.
