شبيه سازي هيدروگراف سيل بر اساس عدم قطعيت پارامترهاي مدلهاي بارش -رواناب

Flood Hydrograph Simulation with Uncertainty in Rainfall - Runoff Parameters

Flood hydrograph simulation is affected by uncertainty in Rainfall - Runoff (RR} parameters. Uncertainty of RR parameters in Gharasoo catchment, part of the great Karkheh river basin, is evaluated by Monte-Carlo (MC) approach. A conceptual-distributed model, called ModClark, was used for basin simulation, in which the basinʹs hydrograph was determined using the superposition of runoff generated by individual cells dividing the catchment in a raster-based diseretization. A narrow parameter range was obtained through application of the MC method Parameter range depended on goodness of fit measures. The results of various goodness-of-fit measures are discussed in this paper. The selected goodness-of-ftt measures gave high weight to peak discharge to reduce peak discharge error.