تحليل اثرات سرريز فضايي مخارج نظامي در رويارويي با جرم وجنايت و نيروهاي فرامنطقه اي تروريسم در كشورهاي منا

Analysis of spill-over effects of military expenditures in dealing with crime and transnational forces of terrorism in MENA countries

تروريسم فراملي شكلي از تروريسم است كه از طريق انواع اتصالات ممكن، بيش از يك كشور را تحت تاثير قرار مي دهد.­محدود مطالعات تجربي انجام شده تلاش مي كنند بين منشأ مركز تروريسم فراملي و متغيرهاي شناخته شده رابطه برقرار كنند.لذا با توجه به افزايش جرم و جنايت و حملات تروريستي در سال‌هاي اخير در كشورهاي حوزه منا، در اين مقاله به بررسي اثرات مكاني اين دو مقوله بر مخارج نظامي كشورهاي منتخب در طي سال‌هاي 2003 تا 2016 بر اساس رگرسيون فضايي پانلي پرداخته‌شد. ­داده هاي مورد استفاده دراين مقاله از بانك جهاني،سازمان ملل و پايگاه جهاني تروريسم استخراج گرديده­است.نتايج بررسي نشان دهنده وجود اثرات سرريز فضايي بوده، به نحوي كه وقوع تروريسم در يك كشورتاثير مثبت ومعني داري هم برميزان تروريسم وهم بر مخارج نظامي كشور همسايه دارد.همچنين تفكيك اثرات مستقيم و غيرمستقيم دراين مطالعه نشان مي دهد كه تاثيرات غيرمستقيم تروريسم بيشتر از اثرات مستقيم ان است.از طرفي يافته هاي تحقيق بيان گر عدم تاثير معني دار جرائم برمخارج نظامي كشورهاي مورد مطالعه براساس رگرسيون فضايي است واين واقعيت بيان مي كند كه سرايت فضايي ومكاني بين فعاليت هاي مجرمانه ومخارج نظامي وجود ندارد.

Transnational terrorism is a form of terrorism which influences more than one country through various possible connections. Few empirical studies conducted on transnational terrorism sought to create a relationship between the sources of transnational terrorism and other identified variables. Therefore, due to the increase of the criminal actions and terrorist attacks in MENA member countries during recent years, this paper aimed at investigating the spatial effects of the two mentioned categories on the military expenditures of the selected countries during the period from 2003 to 2016 using spatial panel regression model. The data used in this paper have been extracted from the World Bank, the United Nations and the World Center for Terrorism. The results of the study confirmed the existence of the spatial spillovers so that the occurrence of terrorism in a country has a positive and significant impact on both terrorism and the military expenditures of the neighboring country. Also, the distinction between direct and indirect effects in this study suggested that the indirect effects of terrorism phenomenon were greater than its direct effects. In addition, based on the analysis of the estimation outputs, the findings of the study indicated that criminal actions had no significant effect on the military expenditures which expressed the fact that there were no spatial spillovers between criminal actions and military expenditures as well.