بررسي رابطه بحران مالي پيش بيني شده و رويكرد هاي مديريت سود با استفاده از معادلات ساختاري

Investigating the Relationship between Predicted Financial Distress and Earnings management Approaches Based on Structural Equations

هدف اصلي اين مقاله بررسي رابطه بين بحران مالي پيش بيني شده و رويكردهاي مديريت سود است. روش با استفاده از مدل درختي C5 به پيش بيني بحران مالي 312 شركت بورسي و فرابورسي طي سال هاي 1385 تا 1394 پرداخته شد؛ سپس با استفاده از مدل رگرسيون چند متغيره خطي (رويكرد معادلات ساختاري) رابطه بحران مالي پيشبيني شده و ابزارهاي مديريت سود مورد بررسي قرار گرفت. يافتهها: بحران مالي پيش بيني شده با شاخص اول مديريت سود فعاليت هاي واقعي، رابطه معكوس و معنادار و با شاخص دوم مديريت سود فعاليت هاي واقعي و شاخص مديريت سود اقلام تعهدي رابطه مستقيم و معنا دار دارد. نتيجهگيري: شركت هاي بحرانزده مالي در مقايسه با ساير شركت هاي با افزايش جريان هاي نقدي عملياتي، كاهش بهاي تمام شده توليد و افزايش اقلام تعهدي، به مديريت بيشتر سود مي پردازند. در نهايت مشخص شد كه ابزارهاي مديريت سود تحت تاثير نوع صنعت است و بحران مالي پيشبيني شده و ابزارهاي مديريت سود بهصورت علت و معلول بر يكديگر تاثير ميگذارند.

Objective: The main objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between predicted financial distress and earnings management approaches. Methods: We predict financial distress for 312 stock market listed and out-listed companies from 2006 to 2015 using C5 decision tree model. Then the relationship between financial distress prediction and earnings management approaches was observed using multivariate linear regression model (structural equation modeling approach). Results: The results showed that there is a significantly negative relationship between predicted financial distress and the first actual activity earnings management index, while there was a significantly positive relationship between the predicted financial distress and the second actual activity earnings management index and the accrual earnings management index. Conclusion: We concluded that distressed companies in comparison with other companies will be able to manipulate their earnings significantly by increasing operating cash flows and accrual items and also by decreasing costs. It was also found that earnings management tools are influenced by the type of industry and the predicted financial distress and earnings management tools affected each other through the cause and effect relationship.