ارزيابي آسيب پذيري كشاورزي در مواجهه با تغييرات اقليمي (مطالعه موردي: استان گيلان)

Assessing vulnerability of agriculture in the face of climate change (Case Study: Gilan Province

يكي از روش هاي بررسي ميزان آسيب هاي وارده بر فعاليت هاي كشاورزي، محاسبه شاخص آسيب پذيري ميي باشيد. در اين براي 16 شهرستان استان گيلان مورد محاسبه قرار گرفت. نتايج حاصل از اين پژوهش نشان مي دهد كه برحسب شاخص cvi بيشترين آسيب پذيري براي شهرستان تالش (66/99) ، در مولفه mبيشترين آسيب پذيري براي رودبار (21/97) ، در مولفه aو كمترين براي بندر انزلي (21/2)بيشترين آسيب پذيري براي شفت (66/66) ، در مولفه u و كمترين براي آستارا (92/28)بيشترين آسيب پذيري براي تالش (49/76) و در مولفه gو كمترين آسيب پذيري براي سياهكل (24/23) گزارش شد

Climate change in one area has severe impacts on water resources and, consequently, agriculture in that area. Therefore, studying the extent of the vulnerability of regions to adopting policies to reduce or adapt to new conditions is of particular importance. One of the methods for assessing the extent of damage to agricultural activities is the calculation of the vulnerability index. In this study, with the aim of assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change, The CVI index was calculated for 16 cities in Guilan province. The results showed that the cities of Rasht (61.58) and Talesh (55.21) had the highest vulnerability and, accordingly, had the least adaptive power to climate change compared to other cities. an‎d Langrood County (29.51) has the lowest number of vulnerabilities. The average value of the calculated index is 40.42 in Guilan province. In component R, the most vulnerable were Talesh (99.66) and lowest for Lahijan (2.27), In component M, the highest vulnerability was for Rudbar (97.21) and the lowest for Talesh (24.30), In component A, the most vulnerable were Rasht (89.99) and the lowest for Anzali (2.21), In component C, the most vulnerable were Shaft (66.66) and lowest for Anzali (1.89), In component U, the most vulnerable were Rasht (67.55) and the lowest for Astara (28.92), In component E, the highest vulnerability was for Talesh (76.49) and lowest for Lahijan (22.69), In component G, the most vulnerable was reported to Rasht (53.05) and the lowest vulnerability was reported for Sunnelk (23.24).