شناسايي عوامل كليدي مؤثر بر توسعه‌ي گردشگري با رويكرد آينده‌نگاري (مطالعه‌ي موردي: استان يزد)

Identifying key factors affecting tourism development with a foresight approach (Case Study: Yazd Province)

پژوهش حاضر با رويكرد آينده‌نگارانه، به شناسايي مهم‌ترين عوامل مؤثر بر وضعيت آينده‌ي گردشگري پايدار استان يزد و بررسي ميزان و چگونگي اين عوامل بر يكديگر مي‌پردازد. اين پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، كاربردي و از نظر روش، تركيبي از روش‌هاي اسنادي و پيمايشي و از نظر ماهيت، بر اساس روش‌هاي جديد علم آينده‌پژوهي، تحليلي و اكتشافي است كه با به‌كارگيري تركيبي از مدل‌هاي كمي و كيفي انجام گرفته است. جامعه‌ي آماري پژوهش 18 نفر از متخصصان گردشگري استان يزد مي‌باشند. ابتدا 29 مؤلفه از ميان اسناد فرادست و منابع نظري انتخاب و ماتريس اثرات متقاطع مؤلفه‌ها تشكيل گرديد و از طريق نرم‌افزار ميك‌مك نسبت به تحليل اقدام شده است. بر اساس نتايج مدل، گردشگري استان يزد سيستمي ناپايدار بوده و «توزيع متعادل و بهينه‌ي امكانات و تسهيلات، ظرفيت اجتماعي جامعه‌ي محلي در جذب گردشگر به‌عنوان عوامل تنظيم‌كننده‌ عمل مي‌كنند. هيچ‌كدام از مؤلفه‌هاي توسعه‌ي گردشگري استان يزد به‌عنوان عامل هدف قابل‌تعريف نيست. اين مسئله نشانگر چندجانبه بودن مسئله‌ي توسعه‌ي گردشگري استان يزد از نگاه مديران و نخبگان گردشگري استان يزد است. «امنيت» و «سطح توسعه‌ي و وضعيت اقتصادي جامعه‌ي محلي» بسيار نزديك به محور مخاطره قرار گرفتند. «خشك‌سالي»، «تورم» و «مشاركت و تقويت سازمان‌هاي مردم‌نهاد» بيش‌ترين ميزان تأثيرگذاري را داشتند. درمجموع، 10 عامل به‌عنوان عوامل كليدي توسعه‌ي گردشگري استان يزد انتخاب گرديد. سطح توسعه و وضعيت اقتصادي جامعه‌ي محلي، هدفمند كردن تخصيص اعتبارات توسعه‌ي توريسم، تورم، زيرساخت حمل‌ونقل، خدماتي، اطلاع‌رساني و هوشمند، خشك‌سالي و كاهش كيفي و كمي منابع آبي، امنيت، طرح جامع، سازمان‌هاي مردم‌نهاد و اصلاح و توسعه‌ي روابط بين‌ سازماني از عوامل كليدي تأثيرگذار بر توسعه‌ي گردشگري استان يزد بودند.

Introduction The present study, with a futuristic approach, identifies the most important factors affecting the future status of sustainable tourism in Yazd province and examines the extent and nature of these factors.Materials and Methods This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method a combination of documentary and survey methods and in nature, and it is based on new methods of future study science, analytical and exploratory that is done by applying a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. The statistical population of the study consists of 18 tourism specialists in Yazd province. At first 29 components in managerial - organizational, economic, socio - cultural, environmental and physical - spatial dimensions were formed from the above documents and theoretical sources, selection and matrix of component interactions and analysis has been done through the Mac software.. Discussion and Results According to the model results, tourism in Yazd province is an unstable system with environmental tolerance capacity (environmental pollutants / sewage systems and waste disposal, environmental degradation due to construction in tourism target villages) and social capacity of local community in attracting tourists (motivationally) , Attitude, awareness) act as determinants. None of the components of tourism development in Yazd province can be defined as a target factor. This issue illustrates the multilateralism of Yazd province tourism development from the point of view of tourism managers and elites of Yazd province. The security and level of development and economic status of the local community were very close to the stake. Drought and quantitative and quantitative reduction of water resources, Improvement of inter-organizational relationships, linking decision centers in an organization or related organizations in the inter-organizational system, Inflation control, Participation and Strengthening NGOs and influencing organizations had the most impact on public policy. Nine variables were also included as influencers providing tourism entrepreneurship development, expanding international marketing and using innovative approaches, branding, target image improvement, competing other economic sectors to attract tourism, creative features of native culture, ceremonies, festivals, exhibitions and special events, balanced and optimal distribution of facilities and facilities in the area's tourism space (zoning of services and designating special routes), creating spatial variability in the tourism target areas. Flexibility factors in social communication of the community, increasing interaction of people with tourist and institutionalizing appropriate behavior with tourists, landscape beauty and architectural style (dynamic public space design, revival of old texture, place identity transfer), climate change, improving organizational capacity of executive agencies ( Empowering and enhancing of human capital capacity, job satisfaction, increased creativity and innovation, job security were categorized as independent factors. Destination Tourism Participatory Planning factors, Regional Tourism Master Plan, Tourism Budget Targeting Tourism Development Credits based on Prioritized Potentials, Strengthening Transport Infrastructure, Services, Information and Intelligence (Ensuring Tourist Online Transactions, Using Electronic Placement System and Services such as Reserve Hotels, easy access to all services and e-tourism tools were categorized as dual factors. Next, the direct and indirect effects graph of factors affecting tourism development were studied based on the interpretation of the results of the direct effects graph, the variables of the level of local community economy development, drought and the quantitative and qualitative reduction of water resources, inflation, regional tourism product rates and competitive prices. They have had a great impact and increased their role in the system. Finally, the direct and indirect effects of variables were compared. The comparison showed that of the ten variables with high impact, the rank of six variables was the same in both direct and indirect impact assessment methods and 4 variables had little displacement and the direct and indirect impact ratings showed factors such as: Capacity of Local Community Economic Participation in Tourism Development Plans, Strengthening Transport Infrastructure, Services, Information and Intelligence and Competition of Other Economic Sectors in Attracting Capital with Tourism Sector had the same rank in direct and indirect impact, and other factors had slightly displacement. Conclusions A total of 10 factors were selected as key factors for tourism development in Yazd province. Level of development and economic status of the local community, targeting allocation of tourism development credits, inflation, transportation infrastructure, services, information and intelligence, drought and quantitative and quantitative reduction of water resources, security, master plan, NGOs and reform and development of inter-agency relations. Key factors influencing tourism development in Yazd province.