ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ روي دﺑﯽ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ روزاﻧﻪ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ (ﺣﻮﺿﻪ دﯾﻨﻮر اﺳﺘﺎن ﮐﺮﻣﺎﻧﺸﺎه)

(Climate change impacts on the maximum daily discharge under conditions of uncertainty (Dinavar basin in Kermanshah

ﺳﺎﺑﻘﻪ و ﻫﺪف :ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯽ در ارﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﭘﺎراﻣﺘﺮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ و ﻫﯿﺪروﻟﻮژﯾﮑﯽ اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ اﻣﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ و ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ آن ﺑﺮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب از اﻫﻤﯿﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﯾﯽ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﮐﻪ در ﮐﺸﻮر ﮐﻢ ﺗﺮ ﺑﻪ آن ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ .ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي ﻫﻮاﺷﻨﺎﺳﯽ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ و ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ در دو دوره آﺗﯽ و ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ آن ﺑﺎ دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﯾﻦ ﭘﺪﯾﺪه ﺑﺮ دﺑﯽ و ﺣﺠﻢ رواﻧﺎب ﺣﻮﺿﻪ دﯾﻨﻮر ﮐﺮﻣﺎﻧﺸﺎه ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻪ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻣﻮاد و روش GFCM ﻣﺪل ﺟﻔﺖ ﺷﺪه ﮔﺮدش ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ ﺟﻮ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ6 ﻫﺎ :ﺧﺮوﺟﯽ 21 ،HADCM 3 ،INCM 3، IPCM4، MPEH ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي اﻧﺘﺸﺎر ﮔﺎزﻫﺎي ﮔﻠﺨﺎﻧﻪ NCCCSM و 5 A اي ﺷﺎﻣﻞ 1B ،A B و 2 ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از 1 ﻧﺮم LARS اﻓﺰار - رﯾﺰﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﺷﺪﻧﺪ .ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ دﻗﺖ ﻣﺪل WG ﻫﺎ و ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ، داده ﻫﺎي دﻣﺎ و ﺑﺎرش ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪاﺗﯽ ﺑﺎ داده ﻫﺎي دﻣﺎ و ﺑﺎرش ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ و ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﻮﺟﻮد در ﭘﺎﯾﮕﺎه ﮐﺎﻧﺎدا در دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﻮرد ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ و روش وزن دﻫﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ و ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎر ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ .ﺳﭙﺲ ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻋﺪم ﻗﻄﻌﯿﺖ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎ و ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ، ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي دوره (ﭘﯿﺶ 2046-2069) (و 2011-2034) ﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ (1987-2010) ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﺪ و ﺑﺎ دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ .ﭘﺲ از رﯾﺰﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﻧﻤﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫﺎي اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﺷﺒﯿﻪﺳﺎزي رواﻧﺎب در دوره ﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ، ﻣﺪل ﺑﺎرش رواﻧﺎب اﻧﺘﺨﺎب و ﭘﺲ از واﺳﻨﺠﯽ و ﺻﺤﺖ IHACRES ﺳﻨﺠﯽ ﺑﺮاي ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ دﺑﯽ و ﺣﺠﻢ رواﻧﺎب ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ2011-2034 ﻫﺎ: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد دﻣﺎي ﺣﻮﺿﻪ دﯾﻨﻮر در دوره A ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي 1B ،A B و 2 ﺑﻪ 1 ﻣﯿﺰان ﺑﻪ2046 -2069 درﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﯽﮔﺮاد و در دوره 1/39 و 1/55 ،1/72 A ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي 1B ،A B و 2 ﺑﻪ 1 ﻣﯿﺰان درﺟﻪ ﺳﺎﻧﺘﯽ2/26 و 2/88 ،3/27 ﮔﺮاد ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ .ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﺑﺎرش ﺣﻮﺿﻪ در ﺑﻪ2011-2034دوره A ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي 1B ،A B و 2 ﺑﻪ 1 ﻣﯿﻠﯽ23/27 و 17/94 ،15/22 ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﺘﺮ و در دوره ﺑﻪ2046-2069 A ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي 1B ،A B و 2 ﺑﻪ 1 ﻣﯿﻠﯽ2/58 و 7/97 ،-35/4 ﻣﯿﺰان ﻣﺘﺮ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد .ﻣﻘﺪار دﺑﯽ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ و ﻧﯿﺰ ﺣﺠﻢ رواﻧﺎب در دوره ﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ ﺑﻪ A ﺟﺰ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ، در 2046-2069 در دوره 1B ﺑﺎﻗﯽ دوره ﻫﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻓﺰاﯾﺸﯽ ﺑﻮده اﻣﺎ رژﯾﻢ دﺑﯽ ﻫﺎي ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ اﯾﻦ ﺣﻮﺿﻪ در دوره ﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ ﺑﻪ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ اي اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ دوره ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه اي ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ .ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﯽ ﻫﺎي دﺑﯽ ﻓﺮﮐﺎﻧﺲ ﺑﺎ اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﺸﺎن داد در ﺑﺮﺧﯽ ﻣﺎهﻫﺎ دﺑﯽ ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻈﺮ در اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت وﻗﻮع ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ داشته است. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿﺮي: ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد در دوره ﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ ﻣﻘﺪار دﻣﺎ و ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ ﭘﯿﺶ ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺷﺪه اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﻣﺎ در دوره دوم ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮ از دوره اول و اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﺎرﻧﺪﮔﯽ در دوره اول ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮ از دوره دوم ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد .ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار دﺑﯽ دوره ﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣﯽ ﯾﺎﺑﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ دﺑﯽ در دوره اول ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮ از دوره دوم اﺳﺖ و ﻣﯿﺰان ﺣﺠﻢ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪي رواﻧﺎب ﻧﯿﺰ در دوره اول ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮ از دوره دوم و در ﻫﺮ دو دوره ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮ از دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آﻣﺪ. از ﻃﺮﻓﯽ ﻣﯿﺰان دﺑﯽ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ روزاﻧﻪ در دوره ﻫﺎي آﺗﯽ ﮐﻢ ﺗﺮ ﺷﺪه ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﮐﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان ﮐﺎﻫﺶ دﺑﯽ ﺣﺪاﮐﺜﺮ در دوره دوم ﺑﯿﺶ ﺗﺮ از دوره اول اﺳﺖ .ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﯽﻫﺎي دﺑﯽ ﻓﺮﮐﺎﻧﺲ ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﺸﺎن داد در ﺻﻮرت ﻋﺪم ذﺧﯿﺮه آب، ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﮑﻞ ﺗﺄﻣﯿﻦ ﻧﯿﺎز ﻣﺼﺎرف ﮐﺸﺎورزي و ﺷﺮب و ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻣﻮاﺟﻪ ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ.

Background and Objectives: The phenomenon of climate change and its impact on water resources is of utmost importance that has been less investigated in our country.In this study, the meteorological variables in terms of predicted climate change and were compared with the present situation. The effect of this phenomenon on Dinavar Kermanshah discharge basin taking into account the uncertainty was evaluated. Materials and Methods: To this end, results of 6 model coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation of the atmosphere contains MPEH5, IPCM4, INCM3, HADCM3, GFCM21 and NCCCSM under scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions SRESS includes A1B, A2 and B1 were Downscaling using the LARS-WG software. To determine the accuracy of the models and scenarios, temperature and precipitation observational data were compared with temperature and precipitation available data on Canada base models and scenarios and weighted method was used to evaluate uncertainty models and scenarios. Then, base of scenario and models uncertainty, was predicted variables in coming period (2011-2034) and (2046-2069) compared with the base period (1987-2010). After the downscaling of climate variables, IHACRES rainfall-runoff models used to simulate runoff in future periods. Results: Based on the results, it's expected that temperature will be increased respectively 1.72, 1.55 and 1.39 °C in 2011-2034 and 3.27, 2.88 and 2.26 °C in 2046-2069, for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios compared to the baseline in Dinavar basin. As well as precipitation changes respectively has been 15.22, 17.94 and 23.27 mm for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in 2011-2034 and -35.4, 7.97 and 2.58 mm for A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios in 2046-2069 compared to the baseline in this basin. The results showed that the amount of average flow and runoff volume has been increased in future periods except A1B scenario (2046-2069). But, flow regime of maximum daily discharges showed that it is adjust in future period. Flow - Frequency curve analysis with different probability showed that it is required to build large reservoirs to water supply in low flow seasons in future periods. Conclusion: The results showed that the amount of average temperature and precipitation will be increased in future periods. So that the increase of temperature in the second period is more than the first period and increase of precipitation in the first period will be more than the second period. Also the amount of discharges in future period will be increased so that the increase in the first period will be more than the second period and the volume of runoff in the first period will be more than the second period and in both periods were higher than the base period. But flow regime of maximum daily discharges showed the decreasing in future period, So that the maximum discharge rate decrease in the second period is more than the first period. Flow - Frequency curve analysis also showed that in the absence of water storage, agriculture and industry and drinking in the area faced with supply problems.