چكيده لاتين :
Introduction
Climate change is one of the major environmental challenges of the 21st century (Azadi, Yazdanpanah, Forozani & Mahmoudi, 2017; Clayton et al., 2015; Shi, Visschers, & Siegrist, 2015; Yazdanpanah & Zobeidi, 2018; Zobeidi, Yazdanpanah, Forouzani, & Khosravipour, 2016) and, in particular, is one of the most important economic, social and environmental threats to human life (Kittipongvises & Mino, 2015; Hidalgo & Pisano, 2010; Zobeidi, Yazdanpanah, Forouzani, & Khosravipour, 2016). According to a report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013 (IPCC), the damage caused by global warming is likely to be irreversible and catastrophic if no global action is quickly taken to stabilize the rise in temperature of the Earth’s surface (Shi, Visschers, & Siegrist, 2015).
In the meantime, farmers of developing countries are the most highly exposed group to climate change, as many of them live at a subsistence level. Therefore, climate change is a particular source of hazard and risk for farmers (Ahsan & Brandt, 2015; Azadi, Yazdanpanah, Forozani & Mahmoudi, 2018). Hence, understanding public risk perception related to possible consequences of climate change is of paramount importance. Not only does risk perception have an important role in shaping climate policy, it is also central in generating support for initiatives for adaptation and mitigation (Lujala, Lein, & Rød, 2015). Furthermore, understanding public perception of climate-change seems to be crucial for the implementation of appropriate and effective actions, not only because public concern is the precondition for informing people effectively about climate change risks, but also because it has the enormous potential to increase the public’s willingness to change behaviors and to accept policy measures (Shi, Visschers, & Siegrist, 2015).
Research investigating farmers' perceptions of climate change risks is growing because understanding how farmers perceive climate change risks and how this affects their willingness to adopt adaptation practices is critical for developing effective climate change response strategies for the agricultural sector (Li, Juhász-Horváth, Harrison, Pinter, & Rounsevell., 2017). Therefore, risk perceptions are crucial factors that affect their farm production, investment and management decisions. Given this subject, the results of this research can help to shape appropriate policies to increase risk perception and farmers' adaptation to climate change (Ullah, Shivakoti, & Ali, 2015).
Materials and Methods
In this study, a survey research method was used and the main tool for data collection was a questionnaire. Study population was all wheat growers' of Kermanshah county (N=30000). Statistical sample was 380 Wheat growers' determined using Krejcie and Morgan table, and a Multi-Stage Cluster Sampling was also used to collect data from grower using questionnaire. A panel of experts confirmed the face validity of the questionnaire. Moreover, Cronbach’s alpha reliability coefficients for the pilot study assessment were employed to refine the questions to be prepared for the final questionnaire (0.77 to 0.91). To analyze the information, structural equation modeling and statistical analysis methods were used. They were calculated using SPSS24 and AMOS22 software. To get the required map, Arc GIS9.3 software was applied.
Results and Discussion
Regarding demographic variables, the age of the participants ranged from 25 to 84 with a mean value of 48.67 years (S.D. = 12.47). The sample consisted of 13 female farmers (3.7%) and 337 male farmers (96.3%). A Pearson correlation test was used to investigate the relationship between all variables. The results revealed a significant relationship between risk perception and other variables, including trust, knowledge, environmental attitude and concern. We analyzed empirical data from the survey with the help of structural equation modeling. Risk perception was selected as the dependent variable and trust, knowledge, environmental attitude and concern as independent variables and were entered into the SEM. Path relationships revealed that the variables of trust, knowledge, environmental attitude and concern have direct effects on the positive risk perception of climate change. Collectively, these variables account for 31 percent of the variability risk perception of climate change. The most effective variable to predict risk perception of farmers in the face of climate change was environmental attitude that has a direct and significant effect on growers' risk perception.
Conclusion
The aim of this paper was to investigate the factors affecting the risk perception of wheat farmers in Kermanshah County toward climate change. Our analysis revealed that the variables of trust, knowledge, environmental attitude and concern have direct effects on the positive risk perception of climate change. Collectively, these variables account for 31 percent of the variability risk perception of climate change.
